Recent Trends in International Trade Development

1. Total volume and growth rate: First stable then slow, under pressure in 2026. In 2025, global trade reached a record high of 35 trillion yuan, an increase of about 7% year-on-year. The recovery of goods trade was mainly driven by tariff-preparation inventory and demand for AI products, with the World Trade Organization raising the growth rate of goods trade to 2.4%.
2. In 2026, the growth rate will significantly decline: The World Trade Organization's latest forecast of the growth rate of goods trade is 0.5%-1.9%, and services trade is about 4.8%; high tariffs, weak demand, and geopolitical fragmentation are the main setbacks.
2. Structural transformation: Acceleration of service-oriented, digital, and green trade. The annual growth rate of service exports in the past decade was 5.3%, twice as much as goods, accounting for 27% of global trade. In 2025, the growth rate will be nearly 9%, with cross-border delivery, digital services, and business services as the mainstay.
2. Digital trade and AI-driven: AI-related products (chips, servers, computing equipment) had a trade volume of 1.92 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year, contributing to a 43% increase in global goods trade; digital trade and e-commerce continued to expand.
2. The rise of green trade: New energy vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, and low-carbon equipment have become new growth points for exports; China's new energy vehicles and green manufacturing have driven the increase in the share of global green trade.
3. The restructuring of the格局: Regionalization, the rise of South-South trade, and adjustments to the value chain. The shift from globalization to regionalization: The multilateral system faced pressure, and regional free trade agreements (RCEP, USMCA, EU single market) became the mainstream; the supply chain shifted from 'global efficiency' to safety + resilience, with near-shore outsourcing and friendly-shore outsourcing increasing.
2. South-South trade has become a growth engine: Exports of goods between developing economies increased from 0.5 trillion yuan in 1995 to 6.8 trillion yuan in 2025; 57% of exports from developing countries flow to other developing economies, with the Asian regional value chain as the core driver.
2. The shift of the center of gravity: The growth rate of the Asia-Pacific and emerging markets has continued to be higher than that of developed economies; China and ASEAN have consolidated their positions in the manufacturing and intermediate product trade.
4. Policies and risks: The rise of protectionism, and the intensification of rule competition. The increase in tariffs and barriers: Trade restrictions measures in 2024-2025 set a new high in recent years, and tariffs have been used as a strategic tool, significantly increasing trade costs.
2. Competition in rules: From 'competition of comparative advantage' to competition in standards, supply chain, digital and green rules; geopolitical politics affect trade access, and 'detachment and linkage' increase the cost of迂回trade and supply chain.
2. The multilateral system faced pressure: The dispute resolution mechanism of the World Trade Organization was blocked, and the fragmentation of global trade governance was intensified.
5. Key conclusions • Growth: Innovation in total volume, the steps of the growth rate, and weak recovery as the main基调in 2026.
2. Structure: Stable goods, fast services, digital and green leading.
2. The situation: Deepening regionalization, South-South, and centralization in Asia.
2. Risks: Policy uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and high tariffs are the biggest constraints.